Bali’s Trillion-Rupiah Dilemma: Does It Need a Second Airport?
Imagine you have just landed in Bali, ready to enjoy a relaxing tropical vacation, yet immediately greeted by a sea of people and hours of severe traffic jams from the airport to popular areas like Canggu or Seminyak.
This scene has now become a daily staple in South Bali. Amidst this increasingly congested infrastructure situation, a massive discourse has emerged that is once again heating up the discussion tables of policymakers and investors, namely the construction of the North Bali International Airport in Buleleng Regency.
It’s not just about daily traffic discourse; the proposal for a new airport in Bali also addresses the role of the Island of the Gods in the vision of equitable development leading up to Golden Indonesia 2045. However, to understand why the idea of a new airport feels so urgent to some parties, we must look at the actual conditions at I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport today. Located in Tuban, this airport is the sole main aviation gateway for millions of domestic and foreign tourists.
The main problem is very simple yet fatal, which is the rapidly depleting capacity.
Critical Capacity and the Centralization Trap
Data shows that the post-pandemic recovery of Bali tourism occurred very quickly and aggressively. Throughout 2023, I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport recorded serving up to 21.4 million passenger movements [1]. This figure is quite alarming when we consider that the airport's maximum design capacity is only around 24 million passengers per year [2]. With the tourism growth trend continuing to climb, this maximum capacity is predicted to be exceeded in a very short time.
When an airport operates beyond its capacity, the domino effect is highly detrimental. Airplanes have to circle in the air waiting for their turn to land, waiting rooms become cramped, and the quality of public services will drop drastically. The normal solution to this problem is obviously the expansion of the airport area. However, Ngurah Rai Airport is squeezed by the sea on one side and densely populated residential areas on the other. Further land reclamation would trigger strong opposition from environmental groups, while acquiring residential land in Kuta would cost an unreasonable amount of money.
This phenomenon is essentially a real picture of what can be called a centralization trap, a condition in which all economic activity and infrastructure keep piling up in one geographic point until that point simply runs out of room to grow. In a broader context, this kind of trap is exactly one of the challenges Indonesia must avoid if it truly wants to realize the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision.
Development that keeps concentrating in a single region not only burdens that region physically; it also holds back other regions from developing alongside it. The case of Ngurah Rai is a concrete example of just how costly it becomes when a country allows development to pile up in one location for too long.
The Dream of Economic Equality in Buleleng
This is the reason why the eyes of the government and investors are starting to glance at the northern region of Bali. The plan to build an airport in Buleleng is not only aimed at taking over the excess flight burden from Ngurah Rai. This project carries a much larger socio-economic mission, namely the equal distribution of welfare for the people of Bali.
For decades, the economic pie of Bali's tourism has been almost entirely dominated by southern areas such as Kuta, Nusa Dua, Jimbaran, and Canggu. This extraordinary concentration of tourists creates a sharp economic disparity with the Balinese people in the northern and eastern parts. Supporters of this project believe that the presence of an international airport in Buleleng will force the tourism ecosystem to shift. New hotels will be built around it, restaurants will spring up, and job opportunities will open wide for the people of Buleleng and its surroundings without them having to migrate to Denpasar.
This argument fits squarely with one of the main pillars in the Golden Indonesia 2045 roadmap, namely equitable development. One of the essential conditions for Indonesia to move up into the ranks of developed nations is making sure economic growth is not only enjoyed by a handful of already established regions, but spreads out to areas that have long been left behind. The growth of Bali's tourism economy should no longer just pile up in the southern region. It needs to be felt across every layer of Balinese society, including those living in Buleleng, Karangasem, and other northern areas that have so far only watched from the sidelines as their own island's tourism industry flourished.
This discourse even gained fresh momentum from the new government who openly stated his commitment to review and accelerate the realization of the North Bali Airport. This political push from the highest level has made an on-again, off-again project return to the main spotlight for contractors and investors.
The Bali Alternative Debate: A New Airport or Just Toll Roads and LRT?
However, the idea of building a new airport that is estimated to cost tens of trillions of rupiah is not immune to sharp criticism. Many urban planning and transportation experts assess that Bali's main problem is not a lack of airports, but rather poor land transportation connectivity.
Skeptics of this project present a very logical argument. They argue that trillions of rupiah from both private and government funds would be much more effective if used to build a toll road connecting South Bali and North Bali, or to build a rail-based mass transit system such as a Light Rail Transit (LRT) network.
The logic is that if land access from the airport in the south to the northern region can be reached in just one hour via a toll road, tourists will naturally spread to the north. Building a new airport from scratch is considered to have a very high commercial risk. International airlines may not necessarily be willing to split their routes or move their operations to a new airport if the tourism-supporting infrastructure in Buleleng is not fully mature yet.
This debate ultimately comes down to a more fundamental question, namely how Indonesia should plan its spatial development on the road to 2045. If that grand vision demands smart and sustainable development, then every infrastructure option—whether a new airport or the modern integration of land transportation such as toll roads and LRT—needs to be tested not only by how symbolically impressive it looks, but also by how ecologically and economically viable it is in the long run.
Breaking Down the Costs and Timeline
The conceptual debate between a new airport and land-based infrastructure naturally becomes sharper once we compare the actual figures. The North Bali International Airport initiated by PT BIBU Panji Sakti is projected to require an investment of around Rp50 trillion, and notably, this entire amount is claimed to come purely from private investors without touching the State Budget (APBN) [3].
As a comparison, the Gilimanuk-Mengwi Toll Road project, one of the options for north-south land connectivity in Bali, is estimated to require a much smaller investment of around Rp25.4 trillion, using a Government and Business Entity Cooperation (KPBU) scheme in which private investors cover part of the financing while the government assists with land acquisition [4]. In other words, in terms of the burden on public funds, the new airport option is actually claimed to be lighter on the state budget compared to the toll road option, even though its total investment value is far larger.
However, a large investment value does not necessarily translate into commercial certainty. So far, there has been no official survey or open statement from major domestic or international airlines explicitly confirming their readiness to open new routes out of Buleleng once the airport is completed. The absence of this kind of data means the projected commercial success of the North Bali Airport still rests on the developers' optimistic assumptions rather than concrete commitments from the aviation industry itself.
On the environmental front, both options carry consequences that should not be taken lightly. The North Bali Airport is designed to be built on an artificial island of roughly 900 hectares created through land reclamation off the coast of Kubutambahan, Buleleng [5]. This kind of large-scale reclamation often raises concerns about impacts on coastal ecosystems, coral reefs, and potential friction with customary adat land or areas that local communities have long relied on, even though the developer claims the construction process will avoid productive farmland and places of worship. On the other hand, a toll road or LRT option cutting through Bali's hilly and mountainous central region risks encroaching on water catchment areas, protected forests, and the zones that sustain the ecosystem around Lake Beratan and its surroundings. Both choices essentially demand serious ecological trade-offs, just at different geographic points: the sea to the north versus the mountains at the island's center.
As for timeline, the North Bali Airport project is targeting groundbreaking in the near term with ambitions of full operation by 2028 [6], while the Gilimanuk-Mengwi Toll Road, according to official documents, is targeted to begin operating in phases around 2029. This means that whichever option is chosen, Bali will still have to go through a transition period of several years during which Ngurah Rai Airport keeps operating close to, or even beyond, its maximum capacity. To manage this interim surge, airport authorities will likely need to rely on short-term measures such as tighter flight slot management, optimized operating hours, and faster boarding and baggage processes, while waiting for the long-term solution to actually be completed.
Based on the design that has been publicly released, the North Bali International Airport is projected to accommodate around 20 million passengers per year in its initial phase, with potential further development reaching up to 50 million passengers annually [7]. If that target is achieved, Bali's combined aviation capacity could increase dramatically compared to relying on Ngurah Rai alone, a substantial leap that would obviously need to be matched by readiness in land infrastructure, human resources, and genuine market demand.
References
[1] PT Angkasa Pura I, 2023 passenger movement record for I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport Bali. Link: Antara News - Bandara Bali Layani 21,4 Juta Penumpang Selama 2023
[2] Ministry of Transportation of the Republic of Indonesia, Statement regarding the maximum capacity of I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport. Link: Kemenhub - Tinjau Bandara Ngurah Rai, Menhub Bahas Peningkatan Kapasitas
[3] PT BIBU Panji Sakti, regarding the investment value for the construction of North Bali International Airport. Link: Antara News - PT BIBU Dapat Investasi Rp50 Triliun untuk Bangun Bandara Bali Utara
[4] Toll Road Regulatory Agency (BPJT), estimated investment value for the Gilimanuk-Mengwi Toll Road project. Link: detikFinance - Rencana Besar Bangun Tol Rp 25 Triliun di Bali
[5] PT BIBU Panji Sakti/Alien Design Consultant, regarding the size of the artificial island reclamation area for the North Bali Airport site. Link: CNA Indonesia - Desain Megah Bandara Bali Utara
[6] PT BIBU Panji Sakti, regarding the groundbreaking and operational targets for the North Bali Airport. Link: Bali Post - Diproyeksi Tampung 20 Juta Penumpang Per Tahun
[7] PT BIBU Panji Sakti/Alien Design Consultant, regarding the projected passenger capacity of the North Bali Airport. Link: Bali Post - Diproyeksi Tampung 20 Juta Penumpang Per Tahun
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