“World Cup Effect” on the IDX: Will the 2026 Boycotts Keep the Market Awake?
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
Football Fever versus Market Focus
There is a classic myth shared across Wall Street and Asian financial hubs: when the FIFA World Cup kicks off, stock market liquidity dries up.
According to market “old-timers”, the months during the World Cup historically see significantly lower trading volumes compared to the months immediately before and after the tournament. Furthermore, the 2026 tournament arrives at a critical juncture for the Indonesian market. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) recently suffered a sharp correction in May 2026, leaving the market in a fragile recovery phase.
However, with rising calls globally to boycott the 2026 World Cup, will retail traders actually turn off their TVs and keep their eyes firmly on the IDX?
The Anatomy of the “World Cup Effect” in Historical Context
As it turns out, the “World Cup Effect” is not just a myth but a behavioral pattern backed by concrete historical data. The World Cup period had depressed the Average Daily Transaction Value (Rerata Nilai Transaksi Harian/RNTH) of the IHSG by about 10-12%, primarily driven by younger retail segments stepping away from the market. For context, during the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the RNTH dropped by a significant 11.2%.
In terms of distraction, the 2026 World Cup matches will air at brutal hours—between 23:00 and 11:00 Western Indonesia Time because it’s hosted in North America, creating an 11 to 12-hour time difference. While this avoids direct disruption of afternoon trading hours, late-night viewing fatigue is expected to suppress retail investor activity during the morning sessions.
Retail speculative money, moreover, often temporarily shifts away from the stock market and flows into consumer spending. Conventional entertainment sectors, like cinemas, face direct competition from the 104 matches being broadcasted on television.
The Impact of the Boycott Movement: 2026 Anomaly
This year, the traditional market behavior might face a massive disruption. There is currently a strong global sentiment and active social campaigns urging people to boycott the 2026 tournament due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This is the largest FIFA edition in history with 104 matches, meaning a longer duration of potential market distraction compared to 2022. What this means for the IHSG, if a significant portion of the Indonesian public actually commits to boycotting the matches, the expected “World Cup lull” might simply not happen.
The main thesis is, a successful boycott combined with the unappealing midnight broadcast hours might be resulting less sleep deprivation and less distraction. This could potentially lead to a normalized, active trading volume for June and July 2026, defying historical expectations. We maintain a cautiously neutral net stance on the IHSG for June and July 2026, with selective opportunities in beneficiary stocks from media, telecommunication, and streaming sectors.
So, what do you think? Will you follow or will you boycott this World Cup? Who do you think will win the World Cup, and what do you think will happen to the stock market during the tournament? Write your comments below!
Will you still be cheering on the 2026 World Cup, or will you boycott it?
Will be cheering
Boycott!
Disclaimer: This content is created for educational purposes or service promotion, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific Securities. Any risks arising from investment decisions made based on the information in this publication are the sole responsibility of the respective audience. PT KAF Sekuritas Indonesia is licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan / OJK).
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