TMT Stock Deep Dive: Analysis, Valuation, and the Impact of Macroeconomic Sentiment

In our previous article, we explored how the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector forms the backbone of the digital ecosystem and underpins our daily routines—from e-commerce to streaming content and internet connectivity. We also broke down the business characteristics of its three subsectors and looked at why this sector draws so much investor attention, along with the risks that come with it.

However, understanding the business model alone isn’t enough to form the basis of an investment decision. As a rational, systematic investor, the next step is to dissect specific stocks in this sector using relevant financial ratios, appropriate valuation methods, and a read on the macroeconomic sentiment that drives their movements.

In this article, we go deeper: mapping out the issuers in each TMT subsector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the metrics worth watching, and how three key macroeconomic indicators can shift the direction of these stocks’ performance.

TMT on a Global Scale, the World’s Giants Dominating Market Capitalization

Before diving into specific issuers on the IDX, it’s worth understanding that the TMT sector isn’t just a supporting player in the economy—it’s one of the largest and most influential business sectors in the world. Looking at global market capitalization, the majority of today’s highest-valued companies come from the technology sector, driven by rapid advances in cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI).

Here are a few examples of global technology issuers listed on overseas exchanges (typically Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange) that consistently rank among the world's largest companies by market capitalization:

1. NVIDIA (NVDA): Maker of the chips/GPUs that form the backbone of global AI infrastructure, and briefly the first public company to surpass a US$ 5 trillion valuation.

   
   

2. Apple (AAPL): Maker of consumer devices such as the iPhone and Mac, alongside a wide range of digital ecosystem services.

   
   

3. Microsoft (MSFT): A software and cloud computing company (Azure) that also holds a significant stake in OpenAI.

   
   

4. Alphabet/Google (GOOGL): Google’s parent company, which dominates global search and digital advertising.

   
   

5. Amazon (AMZN): An e-commerce giant and the world’s largest cloud computing provider through Amazon Web Services (AWS).

   
   

6. Meta Platforms (META): Parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, with a business model built primarily on digital advertising.

Together with Tesla, the companies above are often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven”, and their combined market value runs into the tens of trillions of US Dollars—a reflection of just how large a role the TMT sector plays in driving the global economy today. Keep in mind that these market capitalization figures are dynamic and can shift significantly along with fluctuations in each company’s share price.

Compared with the scale of these global giants, the TMT sector on the IDX is still at a much earlier stage of development, both in terms of market capitalization and business maturity. Still, the picture painted by these global companies offers a sense of the long-term direction: as Indonesia’s digital economy grows and technology penetration deepens, there remains ample room for local TMT issuers to grow going forward.

Relevant Ratios and Valuation for TMT Stocks

Each TMT subsector sits at a different stage of business maturity, so the financial ratios relevant to evaluating them can’t be treated the same way across the board. Here’s how they map out.

1. Technology Subsector: Valuing the Digital & E-Commerce Ecosystem

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On the IDX, Technology stands as its own main sector (not a subsector) under the IDX Industrial Classification (IDX-IC), so its performance can be tracked through the IDX Sector Technology index (IDXTECHNO).

Technology companies, particularly those built around digital platforms and app ecosystems, are typically still in a phase of aggressive expansion, where user acquisition and market share are prioritized over short-term net profit.

Some of the Technology Stocks on the IDX

• LQ45 (Software & IT Services): GOTO (PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk.), EMTK (PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk.)

  
  

• Other Technology Issuers: BELI (PT Global Digital Niaga Tbk.), AXIO (PT Tera Data Indonusa Tbk.), ATIC (PT Anabatic Technologies Tbk.), AREA (PT Dunia Virtual Online Tbk.), AWAN (PT Era Digital Media Tbk.), etc.

Analysis & Valuation Approach

If you use a conventional ratio like Price-to-Earnings (P/E), you'll often find negative figures among growth-stage technology issuers. GOTO and BELI, for instance, frequently post a negative P/E ratio because they’re still operating at a net loss while building out their ecosystem. Because of this, traditional profit-based ratios aren’t always relevant for this subsector. Some more appropriate metrics to watch include:

1. Price-to-Sales (P/S): Measures valuation based on revenue rather than net profit—suitable for companies that aren’t yet profitable.

   
   

2. Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): The total value of goods/services transacted through a platform, as with GOTO or BELI.

   
   

3. Take Rate: the percentage of GMV that actually flows into the company's coffers as real revenue.

   
   

4. Cash Runway: an estimate of how long a company’s cash reserves can sustain operations (burn rate) before it needs to raise new funding.

As a simple illustration: if an e-commerce platform posts GMV of IDR 10 trillion with a take rate of 5%, the real revenue flowing into the company is roughly IDR 500 billion. The P/S valuation is then calculated against that real revenue figure, not against total GMV (a mistake that’s fairly common among novice investors).

For digital conglomerates with multiple business lines, such as GOTO or EMTK, the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) method is often the most appropriate valuation approach. This method adds up the fair value of each business unit—e-commerce, logistics, and fintech, for example—separately, before arriving at an estimated fair value for the company as a whole.

Watch out for misinterpretation: A negative P/E ratio doesn't automatically mean a stock is “cheap” or “expensive”. For growth-stage technology issuers, a negative P/E is perfectly normal, and profit-based ratios actually become less useful as a point of comparison.

Keep an eye on cash runway trends: Companies with a shrinking cash runway run the risk of a rights issue or a new fundraising round that could dilute existing shareholders.

2. Media Subsector: Transitioning to the Digital Broadcasting Era

Unlike Technology, Media doesn’t stand as its own sector on the IDX. Instead, it’s a subsector—Media & Entertainment—under the Consumer Cyclicals sector (IDX CYCLIC).

The media industry is undergoing a major transformation as audiences shift their content consumption habits away from conventional television and toward over-the-top (OTT) platforms and social media.

Some of the Media Stocks on the IDX

• LQ45 (Media & Entertainment): SCMA (PT Surya Citra Media Tbk.)

  
  

• Other Media Issuers: FILM (PT MD Entertainment Tbk.), DOOH (PT Era Media Sejahtera Tbk.), DIGI (PT Arkadia Digital Media Tbk.), ABBA (PT Mahaka Media Tbk.), FORU (PT Fortune Indonesia Tbk.), dll.

  
  

• Latest IPO: RANS (PT Rans Entertainmen Indonesia Tbk.)—a media and entertainment company built on intellectual property (IP), owned by celebrity couple Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina, officially listed on the IDX on July 10, 2026.

Analysis & Valuation Approach

Media stock performance depends heavily on how quickly an issuer adapts digitally. SCMA is a conventional broadcasting player that keeps expanding its digital capabilities through Vidio, while FILM is a film production player riding the post-pandemic cinema recovery—though its valuation has historically traded at fairly rich levels. Metrics essential to analyzing media stocks include:

1. Ad-Spend Growth: Particularly the shift in revenue share from television advertising to digital advertising.

   
   

2. Net Profit Margin: Assesses how efficiently a company produces and distributes content.

   
   

3. EV/EBITDA: A more robust metric than P/E for valuing media companies, since it also accounts for debt and depreciation of broadcasting/production assets.

Worth noting: RANS is listed at a P/E valuation of roughly 38x even though its FY2025 net profit fell sharply, suggesting the market is pricing in the potential of its audience and intellectual property portfolio rather than its historical earnings. It’s a real-world example of why a conventional P/E shouldn’t be read on its own—pair it with EV/EBITDA and ad-spend trends before drawing any valuation conclusions.

3. Telecommunications Subsector: A Defensive Foundation

Meanwhile, the Telecommunications subsector (which includes tower companies such) is classified on the IDX under the Infrastructures sector (IDXINFRA).

Unlike the technology subsector, which is still “burning cash”, the telecommunications subsector is a mature business that is capital intensive but offers predictable cash flow and relatively stable dividends.

Some of the Telecommunication Stocks on the IDX

• LQ45 (Telecommunications): TLKM (PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk.), ISAT (PT Indosat Tbk.), EXCL (PT XL Axiata Tbk.), TOWR (PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk.)

  
  

• Other Infrastructure Issuers:  BALI (PT Bali Towerindo Sentra Tbk.), CENT (PT Centratama Telekomunikasi Tbk.), DATA (PT Remala Abadi Tbk.), BTEL (PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk.), etc.

Analysis & Valuation Approach

Unlike the technology subsector, profitability here is proven and relatively stable. Stocks like TLKM, ISAT, or EXCL are typically valued using a Price-to-Book Value (PBV) comparison—historically sitting in a rational range of roughly 1.7× to 1.9×—or by estimating future cash flows. Other key metrics worth watching:

1. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): average revenue per active subscriber; rising ARPU generally tracks with thicker profit margins.

   
   

2. Tenancy Ratio (for tower issuers specifically): the average number of tenants (mobile operators) per tower—the higher the ratio, the more efficient the business.

   
   

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) & EV/EBITDA: DCF is highly relevant given telco issuers’ ability to generate stable cash flow quarter after quarter.

Risk to watch: Tower and telecommunication businesses are capital intensive and typically carry a substantial amount of interest-bearing debt to fund network expansion. Rising interest rates can erode net profit through swelling interest expenses—a point that will be explored further in the macroeconomic sentiment section below.

How Macroeconomic Sentiment Shapes TMT Stock Performance

TMT stocks don’t move in a vacuum. Their movements are highly sensitive to shifts in both domestic and global economic conditions. There are three key macroeconomic indicators investors should always keep an eye on.

1. Interest Rates

• For the technology subsector, high interest rates are the number one enemy of growth stocks. Rising rates push up the cost of capital, which discounts growth companies’ future valuation projections more heavily in the eyes of institutional investors.

  
  

• For the telecommunication subsector, because this business is capital intensive and requires ongoing network/tower expansion, the issuers typically carry substantial interest-bearing debt. High interest rates can erode net profit through swelling loan interest expenses.

2. Inflation and Purchasing Power

Uncontrolled inflation erodes the purchasing power of the middle class—the core consumer segment of Indonesia’s digital ecosystem. The effects ripple through the chain: falling transaction volumes in e-commerce, reduced data consumption that squeezes telecommunication ARPU, and corporations cutting ad budgets, which directly hits media issuers’ revenue.

3. Rupiah Exchange Rate (USD/IDR)

Many telecommunication and tower issuers make capital expenditures (capex) in US Dollar terms—for things like network infrastructure, servers, and transmission equipment. A weaker Rupiah can inflate capital costs and lead to significant foreign exchange losses on financial statements.

Conclusion: From the Numbers to the Investment Decision

Analyzing TMT stocks can’t be a one-size-fits-all exercise. Technology issuers call for a growth investing lens built around future user potential and business scale; media issuers require an assessment of how quickly they’re adapting their business models; while telecommunications issuers are better evaluated as defensive businesses with stable cash flow.

Combining an understanding of the business model (from our previous article) with the right financial ratios, relevant valuation methods, and sensitivity to macroeconomic sentiment will form a far more solid analytical framework than a decision driven purely by sentiment or short-term trends.

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Disclaimer: This content is created for educational purposes or service promotion, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific Securities. Any risks arising from investment decisions made based on the information in this publication are the sole responsibility of the respective audience. PT KAF Sekuritas Indonesia is licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan / OJK).